Were forecasts for Hurricane Ian wrong? What experts say about the 'cone of uncertainty.' What will the forecast will be for this season? The two-third probability circles for this year in the Atlantic include 26 nautical miles at 12 hours 39 nautical miles at 24 hours and 67 nautical miles at 48 hours.Įffects of a hurricane, such as storm surge, rainfall and high winds, can take place far outside the cone of uncertainty, particularly with very large systems.Ĭone of uncertainty: Many people misunderstand this famous hurricane forecast graphic. It's drawn by picturing imaginary circles that illustrate two-thirds of the forecast errors over the previous five years. The often-misunderstood cone in a track forecast represents only the probable future location of the center of a tropical cyclone. While the cone remains about the same in the Atlantic, the size of the track error was reduced slightly for days 3 to 5 for the Pacific. Adjustments also were made to another hurricane center product – the tropical cyclone track forecast error cone – for both the Atlantic and North Pacific basins.The potential storm surge flooding map – illustrating the areas where inundation could occur and how high it might be above ground – is being expanded to include Puerto Rico and the U.S.The center is removing the 'experimental' label from the peak storm surge forecast that gives people an idea of how much water could inundate their coastline in the Atlantic hurricane basin.What are the other new changes from the Hurricane Center? Better satellite imagery has allowed forecasters to see weather patterns.īecause the range is extending to seven days, Berg said, the area where the map shows the storm may form could show up larger than in the past.Forecasters have gained more confidence in the models.The numerical models that simulate cyclone formation have improved.'We've pushed it out to seven days, which is a pretty big leap.' 'When I started at the hurricane center in 2002, we were only doing a two-day formation forecast,' Berg said. Such a long-range forecast period might have been unthinkable even 20 years ago. READ MORE: Latest climate change news from USA TODAY

How does climate change affect you?: Subscribe to the weekly Climate Point newsletter 'Our reliability of that seven-day forecast is just as good as our five-day forecast has been.'

The Hurricane Center has been internally testing the accuracy of a seven-day outlook for several years, said Robbie Berg, acting chief of the center's hurricane specialist branch. Starting this season, it will show the chances of formation at two days and seven days. In recent years, the outlook indicated the chance of tropical storm formation at two days and five days. The hurricane center issues its tropical weather outlook every six hours throughout the day during the season, reviewing the potential for any tropical waves and areas of disturbed weather to develop into tropical cyclones. Think your home is safe from hurricanes?: Not so fast. Regardless of whether it's a busy or slow season, it takes only one hurricane to change your life. Daily outlooks also begin on May 15, just six weeks away. The season begins May 15 in the eastern Pacific Ocean region and June 1 in the Atlantic Ocean region. The extension is one of several tweaks the Hurricane Center announced Friday, a timely reminder to start preparing for hurricane season. Watch Video: Archaeologist to study mysterious debris found on a Florida beachĪfter several years of tweaking and verification, the National Hurricane Center will extend the time frame on its potential storm formation outlooks from five days to seven days, starting with the new season.

Hurricane track predictions